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    June 23rd COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

    Calculated Risk

    1h37m This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 319,872,053, as of yesterday 319,223,844. Daily change: 0.65 million.COVID Metrics TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose65.6%65.5%64.7%
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    AIA: "Architecture billings continue historic rebound" in May

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    3h49m Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.From the AIA: Architecture billings continue historic reboundDemand for design services from U.S. architecture firms continues to grow at a vi
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    Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in May

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    4h17m Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below). Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at May 2021 Mortgage Data• The national delinquency rate rose to 4.73% from 4.66% in April, driven largely by the three-day Memorial Day weekend foreshortening available payment windows • Similar occ
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    A few Comments on May New Home Sales

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    6h21m New home sales for May were reported at 769,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised down significantly.This was well below consensus expectations for May, but still the highest
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    New Home Sales Decrease to 769,000 Annual Rate in May

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    7h30m The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 769 thousand.The previous three months were revised down sharply, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2021 were at a season
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    MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

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    10h42m From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
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    Wednesday: New Home Sales

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    20h34m Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 880 thousand SAAR, up from 863 thousand in April.• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
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    June 22nd COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

    Calculated Risk

    22h40m This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 319,223,844, as of yesterday 318,576,441. Daily change: 0.65 million.COVID Metrics TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose65.5%65.4%64.6%
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    MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.93%"

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    1d Note: This is as of June 13th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.93% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbea
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    DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased Sharply year-over-year in April

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    1d This will be something to watch as the economy recovers.The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by 54.6% (90.6 billion vehicle miles) for April 2021 as compared with April 2020. Travel for the
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    Comments on May Existing Home Sales

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    1d Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.80 million in MayA few key points:1) Existing home sales are getting close to pre-pandemic levels. Although seasonally adjusted (SA) sales for May were the highest since 2006, sales Not Seaso
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    NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.80 million in May

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    1d From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Experience Slight Skid of 0.9% in MayExisting-home sales decreased for a fourth straight month in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only one major U.S. region recorded a month-over-m
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    Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg, Fed Chair Powell

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    1d From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: No Easy Victories For Mortgage Rates10yr yields may have hit their lowest levels in months in the wee hours of the morning and people may always perceive a bit too much correlation between 10yr yields and mortgage rates, but the latter didn't have quite the same success. To be fair, Treasuries ended up losing ground as the day progressed, but even so, they are nearer to their recent lows than mortgage rates. [30 year fixed 3.25%
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    June 21st COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

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    1d This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 318,576,441, as of yesterday 317,966,408. Daily change: 0.61 million.COVID Metrics TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose65.4%65.4%64.5%
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    Housing: A Somewhat Similar Period

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    2d A period that is somewhat similar to the current housing market was in the late 1970s.House prices increased 14.7% in 1977, 15.7% in 1978 and 13.9% in 1979 (Case-Shiller National Index).Over the last 12 months, house prices have increased 13.2%.And currently demographics are favorable for home buying with a large cohort moving into their 30s, just like in the late 70s, with the leading-edge boomers turning 31 in 1977.But there are stark differences too.First, inflation was v
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    Housing Inventory June 21st Update: Inventory Increased Week-over-week

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    2d One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?Tracking inventory will be very important this year.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inv
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    Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

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    2d These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. Cli
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    Sunday Night Futures

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    2d Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 20, 2021• Homebuilder Comments in Mid-June: "Interest lists are shrinking slightly, Traffic down"Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 8 and DOW futures are down 63 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $71.87 per barrel and Brent at $73.70 per barrel. A year
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    June 20th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

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    3d Congratulations to the residents of Virginia on joining the 70% club! Go for 80%!!!This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 317,966,408, as of yesterday 317,117,797. Daily change: 0.85 millio
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    Homebuilder Comments in Mid-June: "Interest lists are shrinking slightly, Traffic down"

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    3d Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting:Here's a housing Thread to chew on over weekend. Mid-June update from 100+home builders across country. 1) rumblings of price ceiling. 2) slightly shrinking pool of qualified buyers. 3) some home releases not selling out immediately. 4) normal summer slowing as vacations take priority. #Austin builder: “Some interest lists are shrinking & others are not. Seeing buyers